The “El Niño” phenomenon with rarely seen characteristics could impact Mexico between 2026 and 2027, causing more destructive hurricanes, intense rains in unusual areas and million-dollar economic losses, warned the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).
According to specialists, there is a high probability that this event will reach a force identical to, or even greater than, those recorded in years such as 1982, 1997 or 2015, considered among the most intense in recent decades.
“It is highly probable to have an ‘El Niño’ phenomenon with moderate to high intensity… but it could probably be a historic event,” said Francisco Estrada Porrúa, coordinator of the UNAM Climate Change Research Program.
One of the main risks is concentrated on the coasts of the Mexican Pacific, where the increase in sea temperature could favor the formation of stronger and faster hurricanes.
This means that cyclones could intensify in less time, leaving less room for reaction for the authorities and the population.
“If these conditions continue… it could be a worrying scenario,” the specialist warned.
This type of situation has already occurred in recent years, when seemingly weak storms transform into dangerous hurricanes in a matter of hours.
Although “El Niño” has traditionally been related to droughts in the north of the country, experts warn that this is no longer always the case.
Now, some central and northern regions could face heavy rains during the summer, even above what was expected. At the same time, other areas could suffer prolonged water shortages.
“We thought, for example, that in the north of the country there would be drought, but there is evidence that these patterns are changing,” Estrada explained.
This irregular behavior is due to the fact that the climate no longer follows the rules it used to, which makes it more difficult to anticipate the effects of these phenomena.
Even, he assures, This event could temporarily raise global temperatures and bring them closer to levels considered dangerous internationally.
Recent examples in places like California have shown how heavy rain can be quickly followed by dry conditions that favor wildfires, a pattern that could be repeated in other regions.
Millionaire economic impact
The effects would not only be environmental. In Mexico, each drought can generate losses close to $27 billion dollars, especially in sectors such as agriculture and water management.
This implies direct risks for the economy, the food supply and the daily lives of millions of people.
Given this panorama, the National Autonomous University of Mexico stressed the importance of preparing in advance and not relying solely on what happened in the past.
“The climate we are experiencing is changing, and our risks are not only increasing, but also changing,” warned Estrada Porrúa.
