The price of gasoline continues to be one of the biggest concerns for millions of drivers in the United States, especially for those who depend on the car to work or support their families. With the cost hovering around $4 per gallon in recent weeks, the reality is that many consumers wonder if the price of gasoline would drop below $3 per gallon againas it was sold earlier this year. Given these questions, some specialists have raised their estimates for 2026.
In the last few days, The national gasoline average has shown a slight respite, standing around $4.02 dollars per gallonaccording to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA). However, this decrease is modest when compared to the increase registered after the start of the conflict in the Middle East, which raised prices to a recent high of $4.17.
One of the key factors behind this increase in prices is the war in Iran, which has affected the global flow of oil, especially in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, the average price of gasoline in the United States was just $2.98 per gallon.which shows the direct impact of geopolitics on consumers’ pockets.
The economic analysis of some specialists agrees that a drop below $3 won’t happen anytime soon.
“Under the most optimistic scenarios, I would expect that Gasoline prices stabilize closer to $3.50 by the end of the year” Imprint Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CBS Files. “I don’t expect them to go below $3 this year unless there is a major economic shock, like a recession.”
And this has a very common explanation within the guild, which even has a name, it is known as the “rockets and feathers” principle: Prices rise quickly when oil becomes more expensive, but fall slowly when the cost of crude oil falls. Added to this is the damage to oil infrastructure in the Middle East, which could take months or even years to normalize.
However, not all specialists completely rule out a more pronounced fall. Patrick De Haan, an oil expert at GasBuddy, believes that if certain international factors are established, we could hope for gasoline to fall below $3 per gallon.
“If the Strait were to reopen tomorrow, perhaps towards the end of October, November or December, the national average could try to fall below $3 per gallon”De Haan explained. “But that’s definitely not a guarantee.”
For his part, President Donald Trump maintains his positive speech, ensuring that prices would go down “as soon as this is over,” referring to the conflict with Iran. However, his administration thinks differently.
“That could happen later this year,” estimated Chris Wright, US Secretary of Energy. “It may not happen until next year”.
But oil and fuel prices don’t just depend on real geopolitics; Factors such as the hurricane season (which runs from June to November) and increased demand during the summer could put upward pressure on prices again.. Furthermore, any escalation in international tensions could reverse recent declines.
Goldman Sachs studies show that Lower-income households spend a much larger proportion of their money on gasolineup to four times more than those with the highest incomes. This means that each increase hits working families hardest, including many Latino households that depend on the car for their daily activities.
Added to this is another relevant fact: economists from the Stanford Economic Policy Research Institute estimate that U.S. households could spend an extra $740 on gas this yearwhich significantly reduces the benefit of higher tax refunds.
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