For millions of retirees in the United States, each adjustment in Social Security causes a strong expectation, since it can be the difference between whether or not the money is enough for your monthly expenses. Now, new projections point to possible good news by 2027, with a COLA increase that could be greater than expected.
The recent data of inflation show that consumer prices rose in May and brought the annual rate to its highest level in more than three years. This rebound is directly related to the increase in energy, gasoline and other basic expenses that affect everyone’s pockets.
According to an estimate by Mary Johnsonindependent policy analyst for Social Security and Medicare, the cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 could be 4.7%above its previous projection of 4.2%.
“There is a really huge chance that it will rise even above 4.7% as data continues to come in, especially on gasoline prices,” Mary Johnson calculated.
The official COLA is usually announced in October by the Social Security Administration (SSA), because that adjustment is execrably calculated in third quarter data.
Inflation behind the possible increase
The key indicator for calculating the COLA is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Workers (CPI-W), a version of the inflation index that measures products and services consumed by working households.
In Maycustomary inflation was 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), while the CPI-W reached 4.4%. This type of difference is important because the COLA is based directly on that indicator.
The price increase is not limited to a single sector. Fuel oil rose 64.1%, gasoline 40.7% and airline tickets 25%, which has pushed up the standard cost of living.
In 2026, the COLA was 2.8% for nearly 75 million beneficiaries of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI). Although it represented an average increase of $56 per month in payments of $2,000, many experts point out that inflation continues to weigh on real household expenses.
“Beneficiaries would need an increase of $94 dollars per month to keep up with inflation,” Johnson said.
More pressure on energy prices
The increase in energy costs has been one of the most important factors in the recent behavior of inflation. The increase in gasoline and transportation not only affects what is paid at the pump, but also the price of food and services.
“Every week, sometimes even daily, we hear signs of an increase in the cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2027,” said Martha Shedden, co-founder and president of the National Association of Registered Social Security Analysts. “It is not surprising, given the increase in energy costs and everyday expenses we are experiencing.”
Other forecasts and possible scenarios
There are other estimates that differ from the most recent calculation, such as that of the Senior Citizens League, which projects a COLA of 3.8% by 2027slightly lower than its previous estimate.
These types of differences occur because each model uses different economic factors, such as regular inflation, interest rates and unemployment.
Although prices remain high, a COLA closer to 4.7% would represent a significant increase in the monthly income of retirees, especially compared to previous years. In the recent past, adjustments were much lower, but high inflation has forced constant upward revisions.
Still, experts warn that changes in health and other expenses could absorb part of any increase.
You may also be interested in:
- Can you receive Social Security if you have never worked?
- Social Security SSI: why you won’t receive your payments in 3 months of 2026
- Elon Musk is the first billionaire in the world with the IPO of SpaceX
- Social Security Insolvency by 2032: What to do today to avoid it affecting you
- Price of the dollar in Mexico today, June 11, 2026: value on the day of the start of the 2026 World Cup
