By Georgina Elustondo
There is little time left until the 2026 FIFA World Cup begins and there is already a prediction that is causing talk among football fans. A supercomputer Opta Analysta company specialized in sports analysis and advanced statistics, carried out 10,000 tournament simulations to estimate which team is most likely to lift the trophy on July 19. And the result left more than one surprise.
Depending on the model, Spain is the most favorite to win the 2026 World Cup, with a 16.1% chance of winning the title. Other traditional powers such as France and England appear behind, while historical teams such as Brazil do not appear in the top three places.
The main favorites to win the 2026 World Cup
According to the Opta report, this is the ranking of the teams with the most possibilities to become world champions:
- Spain – 16.1%
- France – 13%
- England – 11.2%
- Argentina – 10.4%
- Portugal – 7%
- Brazil – 6.6%
- Germany – 5.1%
- Netherlands – 3.6%
- Norway – 3.5%
- Belgium – 2.4%
The study draws special attention to the position of Spain, which heads the list after its good recent results, and to the fact that Brazil appears outside the top five despite being the winningest team in the history of the World Cup.
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How artificial intelligence made the prediction
Opta explained that its supercomputer combines thousands of variables to project the development of the tournament. Among the factors analyzed are:
- The recent performance of each selection.
- The results obtained in international competitions.
- The quality and depth of the squads.
- The possible crossovers in the different phases of the World Cup.
- Statistical models based on historical data.
Using that information, the system ran 10,000 full championship simulations to calculate the probabilities for each team. For football lovers, there is no machine that can predict the imponderables of a sport in which infinite factors come into play when the ball starts rolling on the grass. For others, “machine studying” has something to say about everything. Without exception. Will it be?
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The data that excites fans
Beyond the traditional favorites, the report includes data that fuels hope for several emerging teams. According to the simulations, In more than a third of the scenarios the champion was a country that had never won a World Cup.
The expansion of the tournament to forty eight teams, a historic novelty for this edition, could open the door to unexpected results and increase competitiveness in the knockout phases.
But… Can these predictions be trusted? Although simulations based on artificial intelligence have become increasingly sophisticated, analysts themselves recognize that these projections should be understood as a snapshot based on data and probabilities.
In the end, the World Cup still has an ingredient that is impossible to measure with algorithms: football’s ability to defy any prediction.
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