When a conflict breaks out, there is always someone who makes money.
Since the war in Iran began on February 28, companies that sell oil and gas, large investment banks and the arms industry have been some of the big beneficiaries.
The Panama Canal has also gained from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the largest maritime route for transporting fuel in the world.
“The conflict and insecurity in Hormuz have forced us to divert routes and look for safe alternatives,” Eduardo Lugo, president and CEO of the consulting firm Maritime & Logistics Consulting Neighborhood, explained to BBC Mundo.
One of these alternatives is the Panama Canal, whose traffic has increased by nearly 11% after the start of the conflict, although on the days of greatest demand, the crossing of ships by sea increased up to 20%, according to the Panama Canal Authority.
And just as demand to use the channel has grown, so have prices.
The rates paid by ships depend on the size of the vessel, the volume of cargo or the type of product they transport. For example, a gas tanker paid US$4 million to cross the waterway.
Although that was an exception, some prices for crossing the canal have doubled because it has a quota auction system so that companies that do not have a reserved slot can travel faster.
Under this mechanism, the final price a company pays is directly related to the urgency it has to reach its destination.
The financial director of the Panama Canal Authority, Víctor Vial, told BBC Mundo that the increase in traffic and the additional resources obtained in the auctions suggest that revenue growth “will be between 10% and 15%, although we will have to see how long this situation lasts.”
Faced with such an unpredictable scenario, Vial warned that when situations of this type occur “things change very quickly” and, therefore, “we are still not doing the math or modifying our projections for the year.”
Asian buyers
Amid the energy crisis, ships carrying oil and liquefied natural gas have been partially displacing container ships, reefer ships and bulk carriers in recent weeks, as buyers drive demand for crude.
“What is really happening is that energy from the United States is replacing the volumes that cargoes from the Gulf previously sent to Asia,” explains Marc Gilbert, international leader of the Center for Geopolitics at Boston Consulting Neighborhood (BCG), one of the largest consulting firms on maritime transport, cargo and logistics.
Shipments of American oil transiting the Panama Canal are close to reaching their highest level in four years, as Asian refiners try to stock up amid a conflict that no one knows when it will end.
Using the canal has increased the costs of maritime transport for several reasons, Gilbert tells BBC Mundo.
The trip to Asian destinations from the US is much longer, the transit toll is higher and the increasing delays at the canal locks, the expert points out, make the operation have higher costs compared to the Strait of Hormuz.
What this situation is showing, Gilbert says, is that when one shipping lane fails, the entire system must adapt.
In these circumstances, he points out, companies have to be more attentive to diversifying not only maritime transport routes, but all the modes of transport used.
On the other hand, it is time to review the storage capacity and accumulation of reserves and incorporate technologies to share vessel location data instantly.
As happened with the pandemic and as is happening now with the war in Iran, the balance in international supply chains can be fragile and any disruption causes effects that are difficult to predict.
The importance of the canal for the economy of Panama
Although it is not the country’s greatest source of wealth, the Panama Canal is one of its great economic engines.
Around 3% of all international maritime trade passes through this route, barely 80 kilometers long, which connects the Atlantic with the Pacific.
In recent history, the canal has gone through difficult times, such as when in 2023 the country recorded an unprecedented drought that affected shipping traffic.
Today, however, the weather has been playing its part and the rains have made it possible to respond in a better way to the sudden increase in demand due to the war in Iran.
And when the canal achieves better results, the Panamanian economy benefits.
This is because the Constitution of Panama establishes that the canal must transfer its economic surpluses – net benefits – to the National Treasury every year after covering the costs of operation, investments, operation and maintenance, among others.
In fiscal year 2025, the channel generated revenues of about US$5.7 billion. Of that total, the direct contribution to the Panamanian treasury was approximately US$3,000 million.
In relation to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Panama, the canal made a direct contribution of 3.4%.
At first glance it may not seem like much, but the benefits that the sea route provides to the country also include indirect contributions related to the entire logistics industry that revolves around the canal, as well as the activity of ports and railways, and the trade generated by the Colón Free Zone.
Although commerce is the backbone of the Panamanian economy, the canal is a key part for the gears to work.
And if this year it generates more income and greater net profits than in the past, the country will receive an injection of resources that was not in its plans, transforming the crisis in the Middle East into an opportunity.
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