Security around Beijing’s historic Tiananmen Square has been increased for days and rumors are circulating on social media about a special parade or a large choreographed event.
Preparations began in the blink of an eye. China seems ready to put on a show for the president of the United States, Donald Trump, who arrives in Beijing this Wednesday.
The trip, which ends Friday, will include talks, a banquet and a visit to the Temple of Heaven, an imperial temple complex where emperors prayed for a good harvest.
And both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hope the visit will bear fruit.
This summit between the two most powerful leaders in the world is going to be one of the most important meetings in recent years.
For months, U.S.-China relations have been a lower priority for Trump.
The American president has focused on the war with Iran, military operations in the Western Hemisphere and national concerns. But all that changes this week.
The future of global trade, rising tensions in Taiwan and competition in advanced technologies are at stake.
From an economic point of view, the trade war with the United States and the conflict in Iran may be bad news for Xi, but from an ideological and political point of view they are a gift and he will feel that he is in a strong position.
This visit could lay the groundwork for future cooperation, or conflict, in the years to come.
China’s influence on Iran
China is trying to intervene discreetly as a peacemaker, now that the conflict in Iran is in its third month. Beijing has joined Pakistan as a mediator in the US and Israel’s war against Iran.
Authorities in Beijing and Islamabad presented a five-point plan in March with the aim of achieving a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
And behind the scenes, Chinese officials are gently nudging their Iranian counterparts toward the negotiating table.
Despite its constant show of force, there is no doubt that China is eager to end this war.
The country’s economy is already grappling with slower growth and higher unemployment.
Rising oil prices raised the cost of items made from petrochemicals, from textiles to plastics.
For some producers in China, costs have risen 20%.
China has enviable oil reserves and its leadership in the renewable energy sector and electric cars has protected it from the worst effects of the energy crisis.
But the war hurts a stagnant Chinese economy, which relies heavily on exports.
However, if China is willing to intervene and help the United States, it will want something in return.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Beijing last week seemed designed to show the kind of dominance and influence China has in the Middle East.
The United States watched closely.
“I hope the Chinese tell him [a Araghchi] what you need to hear,” said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “And this is that what Iran is doing in the Strait isolates them globally, that they are ‘the bad guys’ in this.”
The United States has also tried to convince China not to block a new UN Security Council resolution to condemn Iran’s attacks on ships trying to cross Hormuz, after Beijing and Russia vetoed an earlier proposal.
“I think if we want to get Iran back to the negotiating table in a lasting way, the United States recognizes that China is going to play some role,” says Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy advisor for US-China relations at the World Disaster Group.
Trump, for his part, does not seem to care about China’s close relationship with Tehran.
While the United States recently sanctioned a China-based refinery for transporting Iranian oil, the president last week downplayed Chinese support for Iran during the conflict.
“It is what it is, right?” he told an American journalist. “We also do things against them.”
The future of Taiwan
The Trump administration has sent mixed signals about Taiwan.
Last December, the United States announced an arms sales deal with Taiwan worth $11 billion, angering the Chinese government.
However, Trump downplayed the United States’ willingness to defend Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory.
“He considers himself part of China,” Trump said, referring to Xi, “that depends on him, on what he is going to do.”
He also said Taiwan does not adequately reimburse the United States for its security guarantees. “It doesn’t give us anything,” he added.
Last year, Trump imposed a 15% tariff on Taiwan and accused it of stealing U.S. semiconductor manufacturing.
Last week, Rubio said Taiwan will be a topic of conversation during the visit, although the goal will be to ensure the issue does not become a source of new tensions between the two superpowers.
“We do not need any destabilizing events to occur when it comes to Taiwan or anywhere else in the Indo-Pacific,” the secretary of state said.
“And I think that is to the mutual benefit of both the United States and the Chinese.”
For its part, China has indicated that Taiwan is a priority in these talks.
During a conversation with Rubio last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said he hopes the United States makes “the right decisions.”
Beijing has been increasing its military pressure by sending warplanes and warships to Taiwan almost daily.
Some analysts believe Chinese authorities may be pushing for a change to the vocabulary regarding Taiwan, which was carefully defined in 1982.
Washington’s recently stated policy is that it does not currently support Taiwanese independence. Could Beijing advocate for stronger language, such as “the United States opposes Taiwan independence”?
“I just don’t think President Xi will do that,” says John Delury, senior fellow at the Asian Society’s Center on US-China Relations.
“Even if Trump says something that sounds like a capitulation to Taiwan, because he’s not as careful with his use of language, the Chinese know not to make a big deal of it, because he can reverse it with a Truth Social post a week later.”
Fundamental business conversations
For much of 2025, the United States and China appeared to be on the brink of a new trade war, which could shake the foundations of the global economy.
Trump repeatedly increased and reduced tariffs on the United States’ main trading partner, sometimes reaching rates exceeding 100%.
In response, China restricted exports of rare earth minerals to the United States and its purchase of American agricultural products, hurting farmers in key states that voted for Trump.
Tension has dropped considerably since Trump and Xi met face-to-face in South Korea last October.
The U.S. Supreme Court’s February ruling restricting the president’s unilateral power to impose tariffs also helped quell Trump’s more mercurial trade instincts.
However, Trump and Xi will still have plenty to talk about during their summit in Beijing.
The US leader will push to increase Chinese purchases of American agricultural products.
China will no doubt pressure the United States to drop a recently announced trade investigation into unfair business practices, which would give Trump the chance to reimpose higher tariffs on Chinese goods.
This will be difficult for the American side.
“It could be difficult for the United States to abandon investigations into all of China’s unfair trade practices, given how widespread and distorting they remain,” explains Michael O’Hanlan, Phil Knight Chair in Defense and Strategy at the Brookings Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
The Trump administration is also inviting the CEOs of Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, Boeing and other major companies to join him on this visit, according to Reuters.
While China is no longer as dependent on the United States for trade as it was during Trump’s first term as president, Xi will want this meeting to go well, as China needs stability in the global economy.
It is now the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries, but Xi will know better than to be overconfident during Trump’s visit.
“As long as the visit goes smoothly and Trump concludes that he was treated with respect, the uneasy calm in the bilateral relationship will endure,” says Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institute.
“If, on the other hand, Trump walks away feeling disrespected or belittled, then he might change his mind.”
The future of AI
China is in a race to own the future. It is investing heavily in humanoid and artificial intelligence robots. These are part of what Xi calls “new productive forces” and hopes they will boost China’s economy.
However, many American policymakers believe that official Chinese policy is to co-opt or outright steal American technology to advance its domestic industries.
This has led to restrictions on the export of the latest microprocessors, for example, despite the objections of American manufacturers.
The successful resolution of the thorny issue of China’s ownership and control of the popular social media app TikTok provided a rare happy ending to US-China interactions over technology, which are often plagued by accusations and suspicions.
This dynamic is reflected in the race to develop artificial intelligence systems, perhaps the key new technological development of modern times.
The issue is complicated by US accusations that Chinese companies like DeepSeek are stealing US artificial intelligence.
“The first chapter of the AI cold war is emerging,” says Yingyi Ma of the John L Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution.
“The White House accused China of stealing American models of ‘industrial-scale’ AI, while Beijing reportedly took steps to prevent Meta from acquiring Manus, a Chinese-founded AI startup now based in Singapore,” explains Thornton.
“The d “The deeper ebate is not who copies whose model, but who has the talent to create the next generation of cutting-edge AI.”
Chinese robots are capable of putting on a show, doing kung-fu moves and running faster than humans during a marathon in Beijing.
However, while Chinese companies seem to be experts at building the bodies of these robots, many are still working on programming the brains of their new creations.
To build the best ones, Chinese companies need high-end computer chips, and those chips come from the United States.
This is where Beijing could use its influence over rare earths, a major sector that Trump undoubtedly covets.
China processes about 90% of the world’s rare earth minerals, which are essential for all modern technology, from smartphones to wind farms and jet engines.
Therefore, it may be worth reaching an agreement.
The United States can keep Chinese rare earths in exchange for high-end chips. This is a kind of China’s Strait of Hormuz: it can stop the supply at any time.
Despite all the political ground both sides must cover, Trump’s visit will be a whirlwind tour, with meetings and events scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
There may not be much time for the two leaders to reach substantial agreements, but even such a brief meeting could set the stage for negotiations and relations between the two superpowers for years to come.
Cover Image Credit: Getty
This article was originally written in English and we used an artificial intelligence tool to translate it. A BBC journalist reviewed the text before publication. Learn more about how we use AI.
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