By The Opinion
The economic start of 2026 in the United States left a sensation of chiaroscuro, at least that is how I reflect it the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at an annual rate of 2%which during the first quarter represented an improvement compared to the end of 2025 and with an indication that the economy continues to advance in a complex global environment.
According to the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), The rebound was mainly driven by investment, exports, consumer spending and public spending. However, imports also grew, which subtracts from the GDP calculation. This increase contrasts with the weak 0.5% recorded in the fourth quarter of the previous year.
The report details that the acceleration is explained by greater dynamism in government spending and exportsas well as a more solid increase in investment. These factors partially offset a slowdown in consumption, which remains a key pillar of the US economy.
A relevant fact is the behavior of actual final sales to national private buyerswhich combines consumption and fixed investment. This indicator rose 2.5% in the first quarterabove the 1.8% observed in the previous period. This suggests that domestic demand remains somewhat strong.
In terms of prices, inflation showed mixed signals. The gross domestic purchases price index increased 3.6%, slightly below the previous 3.7%. Nevertheless, the price index of private consumption expenditure (PCE)a key reference for the Federal Reserve, rose 4.5%, compared to 2.9% in the previous quarter. When excluding food and energy, the PCE stood at 4.3%, also rising.
Although growth was positive, it fell below market expectations. Analysts surveyed by FactSet anticipated an advance of 2.2%. Even so, the result reflects a recovery compared to the end of 2025, affected in part by the government paralysis.
“The core of the economy remained strong in the first quarter, driven by the expansion of artificial intelligence and the tax cuts that are beginning to be reflected,” Michael Pearce, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told CBS News. “These factors will continue to drive growth for the rest of the year, but rising energy prices will take some shine off what would otherwise be a strong year for the economy.”
Business investment stood out with an annual growth of 8.7%, driven largely by the technological boom. In contrast, consumer spendingresponsible for nearly two-thirds of economic activity, moderated slightly, going from 1.9% to 1.6%.
As has been shown in recent weeks, the international environment played a very important role in global economic performance. The conflict in the Middle East has raised energy prices, affecting both companies and consumers. This factor could limit the pace of expansion in the coming months.
On the other hand, Recent estimates point to 1.8% annual growth by 2026below the 2.1% recorded in 2025. In addition, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, complicating monetary policy decisions.
The performance of the first quarter reveals a resilient economy, in the face of internal and global challenges. This context could continue to move the economy into adverse positions in the coming months.
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