By The Opinion
The escalation of war in the Middle East, with special impact on the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil transitsis hitting the airline sector squarely and forcing US airlines to revise downward their forecasts for 2026 due to the sharp rise in fuel prices.
The International Energy Agency has described it as “the largest disruption in the history of the oil market”, with sharp increases in crude oil and immediate effects on energy-intensive sectors such as aviation.
In that context, The first big sign came this week from United Airways, which lowered its annual forecasts and announced a reduction in capacity, with fewer flights and adjustments to its network. The company reported that its fuel expenses increased by $340 million in the first quarter year-over-year and anticipates an average fuel price of $4.30 per gallon in the second.
Before the outbreak of the conflict, fuel prices were around $2.1–2.2 dollars per gallon, which shows the magnitude of the increase.
In this context, the company’s CEO, Scott Kirby, announced that they will maintain a “prudent” strategy focused on cost control. Fuel represents between 20% and 35% of an airline’s operating costs, which amplifies the impact of the increase.
A few days later, American Airways followed suit by revising downward its expectations for 2026 and warning of an increase of more than $4 billion in energy costs.. Its executive director, Robert Isom, said that the company will react by “adapting the flight offer if necessary.”
According to an analysis recently published by Time, the background is a global energy crisis derived from the war in Iran and instability in the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption to shipping traffic has caused supply shortages and extreme price volatility.
In fact, the conflict has sent the price of crude oil above $100 per barrel at times.with increases of more than 50% compared to pre-war levels.
Keep reading:
• Iran threatens to respond if the US continues with the naval blockade
• Tehran denies meeting with the US in Pakistan: “nothing is scheduled”
• Trump questions leadership in Iran: “they don’t know who’s in charge”
